Tableau IPO: Let The Gold Rush Begin For Enterprise Software IPOs!

The year 2013 is going to be the year of enterprise software IPOs.  That is not a prediction but well discussed point in Silicon Valley.  Everybody believes that there is a pent-up demand from return hungry investors for the enterprise software IPOs.  Consumer software IPOs have failed to live up to their promise in the last couple of years but the enterprise software IPOs have continued to deliver (examples: WDAY, NOW, SPLK), case-in-point.   

In the last couple of days, two of my favorite companies, Marketo and Tableau have announced plans to go public.  Here are the links to Marketo's S1 and Tableau's S1.  I have had the good fortune to study, evaluate and follow both companies since 2010.  Both the companies have done very well in their respective segments, SaaS marketing automation and on-premise self-serve BI.  They have both exceeded expectations on all fronts (employees, customers, analyst  markets, competitors) after a long hard slog.  

To all my friends, colleagues, investors and readers of this blog, enterprise software is a hard slog, you are in it for a long-haul.  Tableau is a 10-year old company and Marketo is 7 years old (Source:  SEC Filings).

Valuation

Since Tableau ("DATA") has announced its plan to go IPO this year, I decided to put the striped-down version of my due-diligence, performed in early 2011, on my slide-share account.  Back then, I used relative valuation using QlikView ("QLIK") as a close proxy to put a number on Tableau.  I used PE (earnings multiple) and PS (revenue multiple) of QLIK and assessed a market value of $380million based on Tableau's 2010 revenues of $40 million (from their press release in 2011, this number has been revised down to $34million in S1, huh, strange!)

Now, if one were to use QLIK's current revenue multiple of 5.5 (Source: Yahoo Finance), Tableau could be valued between $700million (based on trailing revenue of $128million) and 1.4billion (based on  $256million in expected revenue for 2013 assuming that they grow their revenue YET AGAIN by 100% in 2013.)

I personally don't think that the street should use QLIK as a proxy instead apply Splunk's ("SPLK") lens to value Tableau.  So using SPLK's multiple of ~19.7 (Source: Yahoo Finance), Tableau will be valued at $2.5billion based on their 2012 revenues.  ServiceNow ("NOW") also has a PS multiple of ~19. 

I have strong reasons to believe that street will be valuing Tableau in this range based on a great growth story till this point and amazing opportunities ahead as we are just starting to drill the BigData mountain.  I will not be surprised to see the valuation range from $2.5billion to $5billion. Amazing!

Tableau's S1

I studied Tableau's S1 filing briefly looking for information on valuation and offering on number of shares.  Not much is disclosed there just yet.  It will likely be disclosed in the subsequent filings as they hit the roadshow to assess the demand from the institutional investors.  Just like Workday, Tableau will also have dual class shares (Class A and Class B) with different voting rights.  The Class A will be offered to investors by converting the Class B shares. 

The last internal valuation of employee options priced the stock at ~$15.  To raise $150million, Tableau will at least be putting 10 million shares of Class A on the block.  Now of course, this will change as the demand starts to build up following their road-show.  One thing is certain that the stock will be definitely priced above $15.  Now, how many points above $15, we will find out in the next few months.  

Let the mad rush begin!!!

Agile BI, Simple BI, Self-Serve BI - Okay, What the Hell This Thing is?

In layman's terms, anyone, including my mom, who is suffering from information overload should be able to analyze any data using simple and easy to use data visualization tools, get insights (like growth in milk usage at our home) and then share the results with my dad who should cut feeding expensive organic milk to his two cats.

Wow, that sounds pretty simple, isn't it? Yes, and precisely for that reason IDC says that this phenomenon presents a big market opportunity:

“We are at the forefront of an evolutionary market that is fraught with opportunity for innovative tools and solutions that can help users handle the information overload plaguing every major organization around the globe.” IDC Market Analysis, Worldwide Interactive Data Visualization Tools Forecast

How big of a market opportunity? $1 Billion big by 2013 and $1.6 Billion by 2015 says Gartner. See this graphics:

So someone asked me few weeks ago, how would you define simple, self-serve BI and I gave him the following definition -

Agile BI is a simple yet power-packed solution which is easy-to-use, cost-effective and offers full 360 degree experience and above all my mom should be able to use it without bugging me...

And here is my definition of a power-packed solution:

There are ZERO products that fulfill this vision today.  Products like QlikTech, Spotfire and Tableau do a pretty good job and therefore enjoy more that 70% of the market share. Where are the big guys?

"Agile" and "Big" doesn't go together I guess!

Here is how I contrasted Qlik against a large enterprise BI player:



This story is universal and gives competitive advantage to younger more agile players over their older and aging brethren because they have offered one single self-serve BI tool that could serve to many personas!





Qlik and Tableau have seen pretty solid growth over the past few years as a result of keeping their strategy simple.  Here is an older blog on Qlik showing its amazing growth: http://goo.gl/cyV7a


The most recent evidence of double digit growth in the Agile BI market was seen in Tableau's 2011 earnings: (http://apandre.wordpress.com/)

• sales doubled year over year to $72M in 2011
•  104% growth in bookings in Q4’11 and 94% growth YoY,
• WW customer base grew by 40% in 2011
•  more than 7,000 organizations use its analytics product
•  big growth with customers in Europe, where base grew by 67 percent

2011 was the year of Agile (Simple) BI and the momentum is gaining further strength. Do you know now what Agile BI a.k.a Simple BI a.k.a self-serve BI is defined as?

Happy Simplifying!

Mobile Analytics - A Game Changer!

Mobile Analytics (a.ka. Mobile BI) has been the hottest strategic topic and a top focus for many enterprise software organizations as customers, small and large, grapple with the big data onslaught and throw everything at it to become even more efficient, both on top-line growth and bottom-line optimization, in an economy struggling to grow and a continent unable to stop a contagion from spreading and once again threatening the global economy.  

Customer's perennial struggle and in-turn a cost-saving approach translates into big analytics opportunity for enterprise software companies to shift customers from traditional analytics solutions to Mobile and Cloud based analytics solutions.

On the premise explained above, I did a business case about 9 months ago to develop a FULL picture of Mobile Analytics market.  I used a ton of research and analyst reports and interviews and invested upwards of hundreds of hours to develop and present a complete story on Mobile Analytics including developing my own proprietary models related to assessing the size of this opportunity. 

I am summarizing my findings at a very high level in following bullet points and have made available the synthesis slides on slideshare (link is printed below).

• Big Data - According to IDC, data is doubling every two years and is expected to reach 1.8 ZB (a trillion GB) in 2011.
• Eight mobility related mega trends are locked in a virtuous cycle and will be the bedrock for growth and adoption of Mobile BI solutions and for  the overall Enterprise Mobility.
• Mobile BI market could grow at 20% plus CAGR over the next 5 years and could likely become over a $2 billion market by 2015.
• According to Gartner, more than 33% of Analytics will be consumed using mobile devices, a prediction well supported by the 8 mobility related mega trends discussed here.
• Therefore, by 2015 more than 15% of Analytics revenues could come from Mobile Analytics solutions. This should be a serious strategic priority for every Analytics vendor if not already.
• Advanced Analytics including geo-spatial for  Mobile Consumers is growing as computing power and form factor of mobile devices change rapidly. 
• Shift to “active production model” from a “passive consumption model”  is expected to happen allowing mobile business users to assemble dashboards and produce/edit reports on the go.

Download slides from Slideshrae - Mobile Analytics (Mobile BI) - A Game Changer

Special thanks goes to Gartner, IDC, Boris Evelson of Forrester, Cindy Howson of BI Scorecard, and Howard Dresner of Dresner Advisory Services for producing excellent research on this topic and answering all my questions and to all my colleagues and friends across the world. 

Upcoming blog on Agile Analytics

Business Analytics Market - Ripe for M&A Opportunities?

This is not a recommendation to buy any of the companies I am mentioning here. I am just sharing my opinion on potential M&A opportunity in Business Analytics space. The companies in highlighted rows present could be a target of M&A this year. (Click on the image to enlarge it.)

Who could buy: HP, IBM and Oracle (or may be Dell) will likely acquire them in 2011.

There may be some mergers between INFA/QLIK or TDC/TBX or TDC/MSTR or MSTR/INFA or INFA/TDC to build a stronger company and to offer complete business analytics solutions. 

Also see my other post on emerging and fast growing companies in Analytics space.

(Disclosure: I don't have any position in any of the companies.)

Growing Bigger - QlikView Faces Headwinds? One Analysts Thinks That is the Case.

QlikView (Ticker: QLIK)  has been a poster child of BI since 2006 growing at a record double digit pace and becoming the envy of many large BI players (by not direct competing with them but still out-pacing on sales and customer growth). Many executives at large firms (un)proudly speak of QlikView as a strong competitor. Pretty good achievement!

 Take a look at the following graphics below that captures all company vitals - 

As QLIK grows, it faces an interesting challenge as faced by every company standing at the gates on an inflection point - transitioning to a larger company. Here are some of the issues identified by identified by Gartner for QLIK - ( I am pretty confident that QLIK will continue to execute well in near-term but it definitely has to resolve all of these issues mentioned below) 

QlikTech offers limited metadata management. As QlikView grows into larger BI deployments spanning the enterprise, the lack of an enterprise semantic layer becomes a more pressing issue. Filling this gap requires additional cost and effort in the management of metadata to lock down common definitions and calculations, and to conform dimensions for cross-functional analysis across QlikView applications.

QlikTech's focus on analysis and usability for end users delivers significant advantages. However, its lack of a number of broad BI platform capabilities (high volume enterprise reporting, planning/financially oriented OLAP, Microsoft Office integration, scorecarding and predictive modelling) means that it will almost always need to be used alongside another BI platform.

QlikView is increasingly seen as expensive — almost a third of its customers surveyed (31.4% vs. 26.1% in the whole sample) see this as its main barrier to wider use. Its pricing model often does not sit well with larger deployments to more users, nor does the investment in RAM required to support the increasing numbers of concurrent users.